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Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index

  January  2019


       CPI in January 2019 increased by 0.27 percent (YoY), decelerating from the 0.36% rate in December 2018. Main contributing factors include a drastic fall in energy index by 3.51 percent vis-?-vis 1.24 percent decline in December last year, following the slump in crude oil prices in the global market. The indexes for fresh food products, however, rose by 1.14 percent due to an increase in the indexes for rice, meats, food ingredients, while the indexes for other agricultural products fell owing to an oversupply. The all items less food and energy (Core inflation) rose 0.69 percent.

       The minor decline in the headline inflation rate (0.27 percent) in January 2019 was primarily attributable to the sharp drop in the energy indexes. Chief among them are gasoline index which droped 6.09 percent as the indexes for all types of gasoline and fuel oil except for natural gas and vehicle gas fell. In addition, the index for fruits and vegetables decreased by 4.36 percent; the indexes for vegetables declined 3.97 percent and fruits 2.29 percent thanks to highly favorable weather conditions for agricultural crops and food supply. The indexes for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 1.34 percent. Specifically, the indexes for rice, flour, and flour products rose 5.02 percent, while the indexes for meats, poutry, and fish increased 3.04 percent, and eggs and dairy products advanced 2.32 percent, food ingredients rose 2.16 percent, and prepared food at home and away from home increased 0.93 and 2.05 percent, respectively. The indexes for shelter advanced 0.76 percent and medical care and personal services increased 0.67. The indexes for entertainment, books, and education rose 0.29 percent, while the indexes for tobacco and alcoholic beverages recorded a slight increase by 0.22 and 0.01 percent, respectively.
      
       In summary, two major contributing factors behind the slowdown of the inflation rate in January 2019 were 1) the fall in energy indexes following the decline in the global oil prices and 2) a fall in the indexes for fruits and vegetables due to higher production level. Other reasons include the delay of the scheduled fare hike for public transport and the continued appreciation of the Baht. Given the indexes for other groups were normally moved, all of the above factors led to the lower rate of inflation than expected in January 2019.
      
       Despite this, Cosumer Confidence Index (CCI) climbed into confident territory for the first time in 15 years, especially the CCI for three month ahead. This indicates that consumer demand still remains buoyant and demand-pull inflation is expected to be on a positive trajectory, whereas factors related to cost and supply could fluctuate the inflation in the remaining period. All in all, Ministry of Commerce's projected inflation rate for 2019 remains close to that of 2018 at 0.7 - 1.7 percent.
      

    

  Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index
  January   2019  
(2015=100)
 

Code
Group and Subgroup
Relative Importance
of base year
Index
Percent Change
  Jan.19
Dec.18
Jan.18
Jan.19/ Dec.18
Jan.19/ Jan.18
0000
 ALL COMMODITIES
100.00   
101.71
101.7
101.4
  -.02
  0.3
1000
 FOOD AND NON - ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
  36.13   
102.96
102.6
101.6
  .33
  1.3
1110
      RICE, FLOUR AND CEREAL PRODUCTS
  3.02   
102.51
102.1
  97.6
  .38
  5.0
1120
      MEATS, POULTRY AND FISH
  6.56   
103.00
101.9
100.0
  1.10
  3.0
1121
      MEATS
  2.58   
  99.67
  97.6
  94.2
  2.16
  5.8
1122
      DUCK, CHICKEN AND FROG
  1.24   
  99.74
  99.8
100.0
  -.08
 -0.2
1123
      FISH AND AQUATIC ANIMALS
  2.73   
107.66
106.9
105.4
  .67
  2.1
1130
      EGGS AND DAIRY PRODUCTS
  1.56   
  99.71
  99.3
  97.5
  .36
  2.3
1140
      VEGETABLES AND FRUITS
  4.55   
  99.77
  99.2
104.3
  .54
-4.4
1150
      SEASONINGS AND CONDIMENTS
  1.71   
103.19
103.2
101.0
  -.01
  2.2
1160
      NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
  1.72   
103.22
103.3
102.3
  -.07
  0.9
1200
   PREPARED FOOD
  17.02   
104.21
104.1
102.7
  .07
  1.5
1210
      PREPARED FOOD AT HOME
  8.60   
103.70
103.7
102.7
  .04
  0.9
1220
      FOOD AWAY FROM HOME
  8.42   
104.67
104.6
102.6
  .08
  2.0
2000
 APPAREL AND FOOTWARE
  2.88   
100.65
100.6
100.4
  .09
  0.2
3000
 HOUSING AND FURNISHING
  23.25   
100.57
100.4
  99.8
  .18
  0.8
3100
   SHELTER
  15.72   
101.73
101.7
101.1
  .03
  0.6
3110
      HOUSE RENT
  14.29   
101.75
101.7
101.1
  .03
  0.6
3200
   ELECTRICITY, FUEL AND WATER SUPPLY
  5.30   
  97.64
  96.8
  96.3
  .84
  1.4
3300
   TEXTILE - HOUSE FURNISHING
  .19   
  98.34
  98.2
  98.9
  .15
 -0.6
3600
   CLEANIMG SUPPLIES
  1.41   
  99.52
  99.8
  99.4
  -.30
  0.1
4000
 MEDICAL AND PERSONAL CARE
  6.22   
101.91
101.7
101.2
  .19
  0.7
4100
   MEDICAL CARE
  1.15   
102.84
102.8
101.9
  .00
  0.9
4200
   PERSONAL CARE EXPENDITURES
  4.26   
101.80
101.5
101.1
  .27
  0.7
5000
 TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION
  24.02   
100.03
100.9
102.0
  -.86
-1.9
5100
   PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SERVICES
  2.06   
100.65
100.7
100.3
  -.02
  0.3
5200
   VEHICLES AND VEHICLE OPERATION
  16.07   
100.04
101.3
103.0
  -1.29
-2.9
5400
   COMMUNICATION AND EQUIPMENTS
  4.31   
  99.87
  99.9
  99.9
  .00
 -0.1
6000
 RECREATION AND EDUCATION
  6.13   
101.90
101.9
101.6
  .01
  0.3
7000
 TOBACCO AND ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
  1.38   
120.29
120.3
120.3
  -.04
  0.0
8000
 NON-FOOD AND BEVERAGES
  63.87   
101.01
101.2
101.4
  -.24
 -0.4
9000
 RAW FOOD AND ENERGY
  27.44   
100.00
100.2
100.9
  -.20
 -0.9
9100
   RAW FOOD
  15.69   
101.56
100.8
100.4
  .72
  1.1
9200
   ENERGY
  11.75   
  97.45
  98.9
101.0
  -1.47
-3.5
9300
   EXCLUDE RAW FOOD AND ENERGY
  72.56   
102.34
102.3
101.6
  .04
  0.7
footnote : The core consumer price index is the consumer price index excluding raw food and energy items.    

Directed by Trade and Economic Indices Bureau, Ministry of Commerce Tel. 662 507 5846-55 Fax. 662 507 5825
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